Identifies the many ways in which unexpected outcomes are endemic to international relations due to the complexity of world politics.

In this comprehensive and unique theory-practice study, Ofer Israeli examines complex effects of international relations relating to various indirect-intended and unintended-consequences of intentional human action. These effects may be desirable or undesirable, overt or covert, anticipated or surprising, foreseeable but unanticipated, and anticipated but simultaneously neglected or discounted. Israeli focuses on six case studies from the Middle East, analyzing the unexpected and accidental results of interventions in this region by the United States, the United Kingdom, and other Western powers during the Cold War. From this research, he develops a complex-causal mechanism or practical tool that countries may use to implement foreign policy, with the goal of reducing the number of conflicts and wars globally, especially in the Middle East.